What caught my attention this week.
For anyone who owned US tech stocks that crashed in 2022 in part because the company hadn’t accelerated much after all. years in the digital futurethe UK offices look a bit Twilight Zone.
Supposedly, life is back to normal, so there’s less need for Zoom or Amazon, let alone ASOS or Peloton. The extra capacity these companies scaled up to provide during the lockdowns is therefore redundant. Cue sinking ratings, and mass layoffs of skilled workers in the technology sector.
That is the narrative we have heard for at least six months. However, I personally only know of one former office worker who has returned to work full time.
Most of my friends with office jobs only do it a few days a week. They say they hate losing the freedoms they discovered during the pandemic.
I was getting a haircut before an office meeting this week, and I had to admit to my hairdresser that he was wrong when he asked where I was. These guys don’t even have an office anymore.
Elsewhere, my daily walk to my gym takes me through one of those trendy campus business parks that’s a bit like a Tellytubbies adult activity center. It has a depopulated feel these days that reminds me of the kid-free playground in child of man.
There’s the coffee kiosk on the corner that now closes at noon on Friday. The once-crowded food truck event that has become a man in a van. The gym that has more student brothers than workers.
brent about
We have been discussing this in weekend reading every few months for a couple of years. A clear majority of readers who have commented have said they would never spend five days in office again, at least not without a fight.
I had chalked it up to hope over expectations or our special audience. But it has been shown to be both a common aspiration and demonstrated in broader statistics.
For example, a new report from property specialists Remit Consulting found that:
…while the number of people entering offices is slowly rising (the national office occupancy average of 34.3% in the week ending Jan. 27 was the highest since the group began tracking numbers in May 2021), there is little sign of an accelerated return to five days a week. week “presenteeism”.
Nearly three years into the pandemic, with all its disruptions fading into memory like a broken fever dream, and yet offices are still a third full.
Meanwhile, London evening standard this week asked all FTSE 100 companies about their current working arrangements. The responses suggest:
…that the old Monday-Friday work week that was once the default is far from back.
The research found that almost all respondents offer the option of flexible and hybrid work, although there are some companies that want people to work at least a certain number of days a week.
It suggests that for most private employers, the new normal is for workers to be in offices two to three days a week, often Tuesday through Thursday.
Great Britain seems to be at the forefront of this Monday-Friday rejection movement. I’ve heard it’s attributed to everything from our longest commutes, worst public transportation, worst weather, or more positively, our love of gardening.
However, one thing is clear: if this change in the pattern of work continues (and now who would bet against it?), then the ramifications will be enormous. Rezoned surplus offices, new-build homes designed with studio as standard, perhaps a change in how we support (or don’t support) child care.
But for my part, as someone who discovered and defended this way of life two decades ago, I wonder why it took them so long.
Have a great weekend!
From Monevator
Why a diversified portfolio needs more than just bonds – Monevator
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From the File Cabinet: How I Fooled Myself Into Financial Independence – Monevator
News
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UK households will take a £4,000 hit to finances in 2023 guardian
MPC member Tenreyo believes UK rates are too high and may need to be cut. guardian
What three luxury houses reveal about who owns UK real estate: BBC
UK trade deficit with EU hits record as Brexit frictions cut exports Bloomberg
Homebuilders have five weeks to accept the Government’s siding deal: Which
Nicola Sturgeon’s Tax Hike “it will cause an exodus of wealthy Scots” –Bloomberg via YF
Getty Images Sues Stable Diffusion AI Art Generator in US for Copyright – the edge
What is a world with billions of old people like? – Grid
Products and services
First five-year fixes below 4% since HSBC launched Mini Budget – guardian
Vanguard bets on direct indexing, says the CEO: ETF.com
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link and get £25 when you invest at least £100 (Terms and Conditions apply. Risk Capital) – InvestEngine
Broadband and telephone bills will be investigated by Ofcom – Darling
The additional cost of shopping at the convenience store: Which
Open a SIPP with Interactive Investor and pay no SIPP fees for six months. Terms apply – Interactive Inverter
Fancy launching an ETF? think twice [US but relevant] – set of facts
Latest on confusing passport rules when traveling to the EU: Which
Bestinvest Introduces Free Trades in US Stocks [Beware FX costs] – this is money
Houses for sale with beautiful windows, in pictures – guardian
comment and opinion
All markets are uncertain – the uncertainty of everything
Why everything you buy is worse now [Video] –vox via YouTube
How to retire at 38 – humble dollar
Where do millionaires keep their money? – Of Dollars and Data
Entertainment versus investment – A wealth of common sense
Do you know how to find lost pensions? – Which
Is it counterproductive to raise rates in the face of supply shocks? – KoI
Risk and regret – house morgan
The difference between active income and passive income – financial samurai
Dive into the past and possible future returns of the [US] portfolio 60/40 – FALL
Academic Evidence of Insider Trading Disguised by ETF Trading [Research] – SSRN
Naughty Corner: Active Shenanigans
The UK has more than its share of 30 baggers: schroders
S&P 500 CAPE Valuation and Forecast for 2023 – UK Dividend Investor
The basic principles of momentum reversal: it was valid
The AI bubble of 2023 – The reformed corridor
Different levels of error: overpayment vs. over-indebtedness. the rational walk
Short Sale Mini-Special
The art of shortening net interest
Marc Cohodes short selling strategy explained: macro operations
Kindle Book Deals
How to make the world add up by Tim Harford £0.99 on Kindle
The Training of a Manager: What to do when everyone is looking at you by Julie Zhuo £1.99 on Kindle
Fooled by randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – £1.99 on Kindle
The art of statistics: learning from data by David Spiegelhalter £1.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
The huge heat pumps that heat cities: BBC
Battle of the Botanical Gardens – guardian
The ESG investment backlash is having an impact [Video] –FT via YouTube
Astrophysicists propose mining the moon to send dust that shadows the Earth into space. guardian
HS2 miscalculates impact on nature, according to wildlife studies BBC
How did millions of dead crabs end up in the abyss? – he does not stay
out of our rhythm
iPhones are made in hell: three months inside the Chinese city of the iPhone Row
Invest in value – certainly
Weather waves and the rise of the right [Superbly scrolling content] – npr
The four horsemen of the technological recession: strategy [Also see visualizations]
11 thoughts on living in 2023, from a follower of stoicism – ryan vacation
Are we running towards an AI catastrophe? – vox
And finally…
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells the optimists and buys the pessimists.”
—Benjamin Graham, The smart investor
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