We got the election result he wanted yesterday.
The result for the Lewes council pretty much summed it up:
It was a great day for the Greens. It was pretty good for the Lib Dems. Work can convince itself that it is going somewhere. And as for the Tories, annihilation beckons.
Yesterday I said that excessive extrapolation of these results would be dangerous. I repeat it today. But there are real signs of this.
In the south and outside the cities, the LibDems will provide a real alternative to the Tories at the next general election.
In some places, voting green will make sense, and surprisingly so in Suffolk. Caroline Lucas may have her days numbered as the only Green MP, and she will be delighted.
Labor made gains on the Red Wall, but not much elsewhere (look at Ipswich and Peterborough for proof).
The Tories’ losses were at the level he could only dream of.
But there are no clues as to what is happening in Wales, where Plaid Cymru might be having a hard time. There is also no indication from Scotland yet, where the consequences of the SNP scandal are simply not calculable at the moment (although I think they will be smaller than many expect: it is very difficult for an independence supporter to vote Labour, whatever the Labor Party). think). Add to that the fact that most of these elections were in more rural areas. But having said all this, four things stand out.
First, the Tories did very badly. There’s no beating around the bush about that. They said they expected to lose 1,000 seats in advance so that 700 losses would look acceptable. Instead they lost 960, with Channel 4 actually thinking they had lost 1,005 at one point. No amount of bleaching makes it seem like an acceptable result. They are out of touch and on the decline and I see little change by the end of next year when Sunak will have to leave for the country.
The LibDems have rallied from the Coalition. Because? Because at least they will tell the truth about Brexit. In the south that is a big problem. I’m sure it will be a great vote winner for them.
The Greens break through. And yes, I remember the European elections of yore when this also seemed to be happening, but the concentration of votes in some areas now is enough that people think that voting for them in a general election is not a waste of time now. And I would remind you of the poll I ran here a few days ago: most readers would vote Green if they felt it would be worth it.
When it comes to work? Talk of victory seems very premature at this time. And I can’t see things getting better for them unless they finally decide what they’re for, turn around their economics, and accept the need to talk about Europe again while pledging money to support public sector workers. Since I can’t see them doing any of those things, I highly doubt Starmer will make it to number 10 with a majority, even though he will make it with a minority.
That is the best possible outcome, because despite all the nonsense Labor is now saying about not making deals, they surely will. I doubt there is a coalition. Who would want one with them? But the price of support will be public relations for the LibDems, at least. And this time I think we would succeed. The SNP will freeze I suspect.
Do that though, and we’ll keep the fascists at bay while allowing them a voice to show how unacceptable they are. That is what we need.
We also need sensible coalitions, as many councils now do.
This is what it takes to lay the foundations for better UK politics. I’m happy about yesterday. We are not there yet. It may not happen, there are always events that turn things upside down (Sunak will be longing for a war). But today things look better than earlier in the week. I’ll take that.
Please accept my apologies if moderation is sporadic today. I have external otitis, which is quite painful. As a result, I will spend more time in bed than I normally plan. I have antibiotics: it will improve.