Global inflation should ease in 2023 and 2024 as economic growth falls below historical averages, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. in an update to his World Economic Outlook report. Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023, and then rise to 3.1% in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage points higher than that expected in October 2022, but below the historical average of 3.8%.
The central bank’s rate hike to combat inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity, the IMF said. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China slowed growth in 2022, but the recent reopening paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, still above pre-pandemic levels of around 3.5%.
In the United States, growth is expected to fall from 2% in 2022 to 1.4% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, the IMF said. With growth picking up in the second half of 2024, growth that year will be faster than 2023 on a Q4-over-Q4 basis.
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